The Generational Demographics Factor Doesn’t Bode Well for a Quick Economic Recovery
Now that Newsweek has declared that the Recession is Over in their latest issue, we should be able to get the economy jump started and America will be back on its way to prosperity right? Not so fast, Virginia.
The Newsweek article is based on the comments of a number of economists that said that according to the latest economic indicators the economy had stopped contracting. So they are basically saying the since the economy is no longer shrinking, we can assume the recession is over. That is all well and good, but when can we expect to see economic growth start back up in America? Unfortunately, when you look at the demographic factors, the chance of economic growth doesn't look all that promising in the near future.
That is where the Generational Demographics begin to kick into play. The economic downturn which was basically the result of both deregulation of the securities and financial services industry 10 or so years back, along with excessive greed on the part of both Wall Street and the banking industry. The resulting downturn has put a significant damper on the free spending habits of the Baby Boomer generation. They have seen the devaluation of their most valuable assets like their homes', their 401K's and stock portfolios. Add to that the fact that their gainful employment, if they are still employed, is anything but guaranteed in the coming years, and it is easy to understand why they have reigned in their free spending habits of the past.
Since a large proportion of the Boomers have been in their prime with regard to earnings and consumption for the last 18 years, most prognosticators predicted that the Boomers would continue accumulating wealth and buying whatever they wanted until they got close to retirement. The majority of Boomers would retire in the next 10 years or so. Since the Boomer generation covers an 18 year span, a lot of the leading edge Boomers have already retired and the trailing edge Boomers won't retire before 2025. But, once they retire, most of them will move into the thrift mode and not spend their money so freely.
Over the last 15 years or so, most Boomers were only concerned with ensuring that their savings, investments and 401K's were growing at a rate that would satisfy their retirement needs. With the decline in value of their primary retirement funds and home values, they are now focusing on shoring up those accounts and not spending their disposable income on anything but the most basic necessities.
This is certainly a major set back for our economy since Baby Boomers were responsible for more than 75% of the GDP growth in America between 1995 and 2005. Last year, Boomers spent approximately $2 trillion on products and services. That amounts to some $400 billion more than any other generation group. With that kind of drop in consumption, the economy can not continue to grow as fast as it had in the previous 20 years without another generation to take up the slack. Gen Xer's represent a slightly smaller population group and haven't reached their peak earning potential. They won't be able to power up America's next economic growth spurt all by themselves.
But in reality, that is not the biggest issue here. The real problem is not who will replace the Boomers as the next wave of free spending consumers. The problem is that the economic downturn has caused the Boomers to rethink their strategies with regard to saving and spending to such an extent that when the economic recovery begins, the Boomers' consumption will not ramp back up to where it was before the downturn. The Boomers are too concerned about their ability to retire and enjoy the lifestyle they had envisioned prior to the economic downturn.
It is reminiscent of our parents and how they changed their saving and spending habits after the Great Depression of the thirties. So what can we do to get America back on track and restart our economic engine? A great many economists discount the Boomers' ability to kickstart the economy with new technologies like biotech, biomed, alternative energies, environmental remediation, alternative power plants, etc. They say the Boomers are past their prime and can't provide the innovation required to create these new business sectors. They don't believe the Gen'xers or Millennials can get it done either.
So, I guess we are doomed if some techno wizard doesn't step in and invent a whole new industry segment. It should be evident that the Boomers alone can't restart the economic engine. However, Americans have never stepped away from a challenge. It will have to be a multi-generational effort. If we put our considerable talents and expertise to work on meeting this challenge, maybe, just maybe we can return America to its leadership position in the world.
And if you are selling or marketing products to consumers, I would strongly suggest you segment your markets by generation and see to it that your value proposition zeros in on the exact needs of your target customers and the campaign optimizes your return. You also will need to ensure that your market share grows not only domestically, but internationally as well. The pie is smaller, so you will have to work smarter and harder to grow your business and grow America's GDP. Your country expects nothing less.
What's your take on this issue? Inquiring minds want to know. Comment on this blog or any one of our polling questions. Also check out the latest articles and content on our homepage. We are always looking for Baby Boomers with an opinion that don't mind speaking out and can successfully complete a sentence.
- Excellent insight MacM. Unfortunately, when you travel the world you'll find that "America's leadership position in the world" resides mostly in the minds of Americans. The prevailing global thinking is that America's greed and arrogance is what's lead us into this current global economic mess. Yes, we certainly have to fix things at home, but I think we have to do it with global cooperation. We, and the rest of the world, must also stop relying on debt for everything ! Unfortunately, our current administration is piling up more debt to try and recover from the problems caused by excessive use of debt. Countries, Corporations and individuals have used debt excessively - this philosophy of debt financing must be reigned in - it's already piling up to the point that it will be very difficult for the boomer generation to recover from this.
- Let me start off by saying that I am an X'er who is anything but a fan of Boomers, even though my parents reside in this generation, thus I'm fairly biased.
There are many statements in your blog that show your Boomer tainted perspective, but mostly I'd like to point out that your main argument is the only perspective I ever hear from your generation, which is, nothing beyond the actions, needs or wants of Boomers matters.
I find it laughable that you state in one broad stroke, X'ers and Millennials cannot get it done. Do you really believe that to be the case? My suggestion is that Boomers stop worrying so much about themselves, since Boomers are by far the most selfish generation in American history, and take some time to really understand the abilities of upcoming generations.
X’ers aren’t banking their savings on Social Security benefits, most of us know that a college education is no longer an option, we don’t plan on having the same job for 20 plus years, we have no idea what a pension is, we understand that we must make our own way, we have a greater understanding of the world around us and we understand the difficulties in front of us for cleaning up the debt ridden mess your generation left us. But we also cannot wait for our opportunity to take these challenges on, and thus reinvigorate the great American story.
So what I’m really trying to say to Boomers is, get over yourselves, the world is passing you by. To put it in Boomer speak, the only way to help yourselves out of the mess you created is to invest in the upcoming generations and get out of their way. - Given history, the likely solution is NOT going to be a pleasant one.
What got us out of the Great Depression ? Or the Panic of 1896 ? Or the 1913-14 Recession ?
Yep. WAR. And a full-up war, not restricted attempt like Iraq or Afghanistan. Who will we be fighting ? If I was to make a guess, the obvious choice is the Chinese. . . And its the Boomers that will get us into it, but the Xers who will have to get us out of it.
Remember, friends: "May you live in interesting times" is not a blessing, but a curse. . .. - Mac, I think you make good points as on some accounts does the "X-er". I happen to be the trailing edge of the boomers who will retire in 2025 based on the normal age of 65.
As for the recession being over I think the economists might want to take a second look. In the high technology sector (software, hardware and services) which comprise the backbone of virtually every company here and abroad more and more jobs are being lost with new layoffs made public every day. These are the jobs which make up much of the top 5% of tax payers and if they don't earn they don' pay. They also don't buy cars, houses, take vacations, eat at restaurants, send kids to camp and college.
Our economy is not back on trackand we continue to throw good money after bad.
As for spending money here, I am 49 years old....the last of the boomers and in the past 2 years I have watched seven of muy close friends decide top leave this country to make a home abroad permanently due to the economy here. These people are the ones with disposable income and a net worth of a few miilion. They are leaving because they can live amuch better life outside the U.S. for far less money.
They all still have business interests, either in their new country or internet based businesses. To akte this a step further I have at least a dozen more friends who are looking for property abroad right now to buy for their retirement.
I think it is sad when people who love this country are choosing to leave because they feel their future willbe better elsewhere. - I grew up in a middle class family, did not graduate from college, was left no inheritance and worked my way up to being the EVP of a Fortune 50 software company, I ave held quirte a few positions in my career as have most boomers under the age of 55 today. WE know we will never see social security or a pension, our medical coverage is costly and our retirement up to us. We in many ways are no different the Gen X other than in our attitude. You see our parents didn't baby us, they made us earn our way and we were rewarded for hard work not only monitarily but by a sense of pride in our workmanship and a job well done.
I am certainly not against GenX-ers and actually most of my friends are in that group rather than boomers. The X-er's who have worked hard are just as bright as we are and have a great chance to achieve equal success. That said the biggest issue holding both sides back is attitude toards each other. We have to look past age, color and sex and work together.
I think economists are on the wrong track, it's not about age but attitude and aptitude. As we move forward everyone willive and work longer and most people including boomers under 55 want to completely retire, we want to be a part of something that is vibrant and growing and we are happy to work with X-er's and Millenials.
Maybe it is because I have spent my whole life working in technology that I am used to working with people of all ages but it seems very normal for me. My greater concern is actually that we continue to send more jobs outside our country without replacing them, we provide more social services for people unwilling not unable to contribute to our economy and this leaves us with several challenges including disposable income, well educated youing people who can't find a position that pays above minimum wage, and an overall declinging economy.
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Mac McKinley's blog will deal with issues facing all Americans, particularly leading edge boomers. I will talk about current political issues, business and technology issues, societal issues, my recreational pursuits, my adventures and my family
